Forecasts, Floods, and the Future:
What the Texas Flood Teaches Us About Business Planning
Earlier this July, deadly flash floods devastated parts of Central Texas. Over 100 lives were lost, including children at a local summer camp, as the Guadalupe River surged by nearly 26 feet in an hour (PBS NewsHour). While weather warnings technically went out, they didn’t reach residents fast enough. The system failed—not in data, but in execution. This isn’t just a public sector problem. It’s a business problem too.
The story is heartbreaking and all too familiar. Some had just returned from fireworks, others were asleep. In a matter of hours, families were left stranded on rooftops, cars were swept away, and emergency responders were overwhelmed. The flood was a force of nature—but the tragedy was compounded by human assumptions: that the system would work, that things would be fine, that worst-case scenarios were too unlikely to plan for.
In business, we see this mindset far too often. Forecasting—real forecasting—is either put on the back burner, underfunded, or delegated without strategy. As CFOs, we regularly encounter organizations that view forecasts as a finance task, not a strategic necessity. They rely on last year’s budget plus 10%, or they overfit to historic trends and overlook variables that are changing faster than ever before. It’s like watching storm clouds roll in and assuming clear skies just because last summer was dry.
As a CFO, I’ve learned the hard way: forecasts are only as good as their inputs and assumptions, and they're only valuable when acted upon. Good forecasting is proactive risk management—it’s operational intelligence, market sensitivity, and strategic alignment rolled into one. It should influence hiring plans, vendor contracts, cash positions, pricing strategy, and capital allocation. And it should evolve in real time.
Picture your company as a vessel. Financial forecasting is the radar that tells you where the storms are forming—before you sail into them. Yet too many businesses are navigating on outdated charts or flying blind, reacting only when they’re already in rough waters.
Is Your Financial Forecast Built to Withstand the Storm?
Discover how our CFO services can help you develop resilient, real-time, and strategic forecasts tailored to your business. Now is the time to elevate your financial visibility.
Contact Us